Vijay’s floor test today: Can TVK prove majority? Number game explained

NEW DELHI: Days after being sworn in as Tamil Nadu chief minister, Vijay is set to face his first floor test in the assembly on Wednesday.His party, TVK, ended the decades-long DMK-AIADMK duopoly by emerging as the single-largest party in the 2026 assembly elections with 108 seats, but remained 11 short of the majority mark in the 234-member House.This pushed the actor-turned-politician to stitch together a post-poll alliance with Congress and several smaller parties. TVK secured support from Congress (5), the Indian Union Muslim League (2), the Communist Party of India (2), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (2) and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (2), taking the ruling coalition's strength to 120.What to expectThe numbers currently appear to favour the newly sworn-in chief minister. Even after one legislator was temporarily barred from participating in assembly proceedings, including the floor test, the coalition remains above the majority mark, making the trust vote appear manageable for Vijay. Ahead of the vote, Vijay spent Tuesday holding a series of meetings with alliance partners and opposition leaders to consolidate support. He met Congress leaders at the party's state headquarters in Chennai, visited VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan at his residence and held talks with IUML leaders.AIADMK vs AIADMKVijay also met rebel AIADMK leaders CV Shanmugam and SP Velumani. The AIADMK had won 47 seats in the election. The meetings intensified turmoil within the opposition camp after a group of around 30 AIADMK MLAs led by Shanmugam and Velumani announced support for the TVK government, openly challenging party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami. The rebel leaders accused Palaniswami of exploring an arrangement with the DMK to form an alternative government, a charge rejected by both the AIADMK leadership and the DMK. Shanmugam defended the decision, saying the AIADMK had to adapt to the new political reality after its poor electoral performance. He said the party should support TVK to revive what he described as "Amma rule," referring to former chief minister J Jayalalithaa.The official AIADMK faction, however, issued a whip directing all 47 party MLAs to vote against the confidence motion. Senior leader Agri SS Krishnamurthy warned that violations of the whip would invite action under the anti-defection law. One more setback before the floor testAnother complication emerged after the Madras High Court restrained TVK MLA R Seenivasa Sethupathy from participating in the trust vote. Sethupathy had won the Tiruppattur seat by a margin of one vote, and his election was challenged by DMK's KR Periakaruppan over alleged counting irregularities. The court's interim order reduced TVK's effective tally from 120 to 119 still one above the majority mark of 118. Sethupathy has since approached the Supreme Court, which is expected to hear the matter on Wednesday.A forgery row, tooMeanwhile, political controversy broke out over TVK's claimed support from Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam MLA S Kamaraj. AMMK chief TTV Dhinakaran accused TVK of using a forged support letter and an AI-generated video to falsely project his MLA's backing. TVK denied the allegation and released footage purportedly showing Kamaraj signing the support letter. Kamaraj has since been expelled from the AMMK.