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Coronavirus: Study claims new COVID wave imminent as new variants can dodge immunity; what we know so far

TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Last updated on - May 2, 2022, 14:00 IST
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WHO has already added BA.4 and BA.5 variants to its monitoring list

Two new sublineages of the Omicron coronavirus variant- BA.4 and BA.5- can dodge antibodies from earlier infection well enough to trigger a new wave, but are far less able to thrive in the blood of people vaccinated against COVID-19, South African scientists have found, the Reuters reported on Sunday.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has already added these two variants to its monitoring list.

Meanwhile, in India COVID cases have been going down and picking up intermittently. As on May 2, a total of 3,157 new cases have been recorded in the last 24 hours. India's active caseload stands at 19,500.

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​What does the South African research study say about COVID new variants?

The South African study includes 39 participants. The researchers took blood samples from 39 participants previously infected by Omicron when it first showed up at the end of last year.

Fifteen were vaccinated - eight with Pfizer's shot; seven with Johnson and Johnson’s -- while the other 24 were not.

In the unvaccinated samples, there was an almost eightfold decrease in antibody production when exposed to BA.4 and BA.5, compared with the original BA.1 Omicron lineage. Blood from the vaccinated people showed a threefold decrease.

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​What are BA.4 and BA.5 variants?

The latest sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5 have been reported in a number of countries, including South Africa and some European nations, WHO lead epidemiologist Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove informed last month.

“There are less than 200 sequences available so far and we expect this to change…We are tracking (the virus) very closely to see if there is any uptick in case detection, but (so far) we haven’t seen any change in epidemiology or severity”, she emphasized.

Experts have also suggested that currently, 8 COVID variants are circulating, including Omicron and its subvariants.

As per a report BA.4 and BA.5 sequences have been identified in samples from multiple U.S. states. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC), is monitoring 11 variants of coronavirus: Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q lineages), Beta (B.1.351 and descendent lineages), Gamma (P.1 and descendent lineages), Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY lineages), Epsilon (B.1.427 and B.1.429), Eta (B.1.525), Iota (B.1.526), Kappa (B.1.617.1), 1.617.3, Mu (B.1.621, B.1.621.1) and Zeta (P.2). The CDC has categorised Omicron (B.1.1.529, BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4 and BA.5 lineages) as a variant of concern.

Meanwhile, in India when COVID cases rose after a brief respite, experts detected it could be due to the Omicron BA.2.12.1 variant.

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​What about COVID situation in the world?

Different countries are at different stages of COVID right now. Ever since Omicron was first detected in South Africa, countries have been seeing waves of infections.

Vaccine inequity is one of the major reasons why many countries are facing continuous waves of the infection, at the same time when it is somewhat in control in other countries. Lack of awareness and lack of testing are the other reasons that contribute to the spread of COVID in many countries.

While in India more than 80% of the adult population is fully vaccinated and more than 97% is partially vaccinated against COVID, in South Africa only 30% of the population has been vaccinated so far.

South Africa may be entering a fifth COVID wave earlier than expected, officials and scientists said on Friday, blaming a sustained rise in infections that seems to be driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants.

"We're in a different phase of this pandemic, certainly. But we are still very much in the middle of this pandemic. This is still a global problem... when we have huge numbers of people who are dying—dying unnecessarily," said WHO COVID-19 technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove.

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​Is there a possibility of a fourth wave of COVID in India?

"Recent data shows surges of cases at district level which can not be extrapolated on the entire state, at national level," Samiran Panda, Additional Director General in ICMR told All India Radio.

He also emphasized on the fact that no new variants have been detected in India so far, which is an indication that there is no possibility of a fourth wave of COVID infection right now.

"New sub-variants BA.2.12 (52 per cent samples) and BA.2.10 (11 per cent samples) are showing high transmission and have been found in over 60 per cent of the total samples from Delhi sequenced recently,” news agency PTI reported citing official sources on the recent surge of cases. "The BA.2.12 variant appears to have a growth advantage of about 30% to 90% per week over BA.2 (Omicron)," the PTI report adds.

There is no official statement on BA.4 and BA.5 variants of Omicron.

The third wave of COVID in India was driven by the Omicron variant.

Read: As South Africa warns of 5th COVID wave here's why it is important to spot the common signs and get tested

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