COVID Third Wave: NITI Aayog warns of imminent threat; here is all we know about the third wave

The second wave of coronavirus, which literally hit the country like a storm was an unprecedented crisis nobody was prepared for and caused a disproportionate rise in casualties and fatalities. While cases are still on the rise in some pockets, and a newer variant, Delta Plus raising fresher concerns, there's already a gaping fear of a potential third wave- the cases it may cause, when it would peak, and how far could vaccinations help us. Even as multiple researchers are hinting at predictions, there's a likely possibility that the present scenario is what may be called the very beginning of the third wave.

ALSO READ: Common symptoms of COVID-19 in vaccinated people

A number of epidemiologists and medical experts have hinted that the third wave could cause a rise in the number of daily COVID cases starting September and peak around the end of October or November. While some predictions hinted at a similar number of cases seen during the second wave, newer models and findings from NITI Aayog have predicted that there could be almost 6 lakh cases recorded per day with the third wave, and warned authorities to prepare accordingly.

Scientific logic dictates that a new wave of any contagion or a virus like SARS-COV-2 could emerge 2-3 months (8 weeks ) after the end of the past wave. While the second wave peaked around the end of May, September and October could be the months to watch out for, especially considering the fact that it's also the festival season across the country, and a time which usually records high footfall and crowds. If preventive practices aren't put into place, infrastructure is not prepared, we might see a worrying rise, which could be far more lethal than the first or second wave put together.

There's still little evidence, or research to predict how severe or worse the third wave could be, in comparison to the second wave. However, some experts do suggest that even with a high reporting of cases, the severity of caseload could be somewhat lower, since the second wave exposed a large population to vulnerabilities and severe problems already...

Prior findings have also suggested that some states in India could see more severe waves than the rest of the country, subject to immunization coverage, and past exposure. Delhi, for example, witnessed its 4th wave at the time when the country was battling its second wave. However, some mathematical models have also predicted that the number of severe cases or infections could be fewer if vaccination coverage is further sped up.

There have also been grave concerns that children, who were also an affected group in the second wave, may be the worst affected population during the third wave of coronavirus infections. There have been talks of readying pediatric COVID infrastructure, and healthcare resources to tackle the same.

While it remains impossible to predict how real, or how many COVID-19 cases could we see amongst children in the coming months, it's important to understand that this could very well be a grim reality to face. Some expert committees have also warned that children may comprehend the same risks as adults and severe consequences, if pediatric facilities, ICU beds, ventilators aren't made available right now.

Not only are kids considered superspreaders, asymptomatic carriers of the infection, they also remain to be the very group without access to vaccines yet. Emergency licensing for Zydus Cadila's DNA vaccine, which could be introduced for kids may only see the light of the day in the middle of September. Another vaccine, Covaxin, for kids is yet to be approved, and may only be available by the end of the year. This leaves kids in a very vulnerable position, possibly facing fears and severe outcomes from newer, mutant strains of the virus, just as seen during the second wave...

While the Delta variant was considered (and still is, to an extent), a dominantly spreading virus variant in India and abroad, there can be more variants to worry about, if the virus mutates further. Mutations of the virus allow it the ability to surpass immunity levels and antibodies present in the body and cause infections. Having said that, new mutations can only possibly wreak havoc, if immunization isn't well present, which is a cause of concern in India as only very little population is fully covered, and shortage of vaccine supplies is a persisting problem.

The Delta plus variant, for example, slowly spreading in some states is said to infect even the fully immunized, and is responsible for 3 deaths so far. However, would it be able to spread further, or become as deadly as the Delta variant, is yet to be seen. While mutations may not be fully stopped, only vaccination, as studies and evident research has shown, will be able to secure some protection.