The race for the final IPL 2026 playoff spot is down to four teams after Gujarat Titans crushed Chennai Super Kings by 89 runs in Ahmedabad to officially eliminate CSK from contention and almost seal a top-two finish for themselves.
Three teams who are already confirmed for the playoffs are Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad, while the fight for the last remaining berth is now between Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Capitals.
GT almost lock in top-two finish, RCB and SRH battle for remaining spot
GT’s emphatic win took them to 18 points with an NRR of +0.695, but it was still not enough to overtake table-toppers’ RCB’s NRR. RCB take on SRH today for their last league game, and they only need to avoid a massive defeat against SRH in Hyderabad to maintain their top spot. A win will take them to 20 points and punch their ticket for Qualifier 1.
However, SRH have everything to play for despite their qualification. To leapfrog GT and even RCB secure a place in Qualifier 1 (top-two finish), they would need an extraordinary margin of victory against RCB.
If they bat first, they will likely need to win by around 87-89 runs, depending on RCB’s first innings total being between 180-240. If chasing, they may need to hunt down targets in under 12 overs. And if that happens, RCB could also drop dow nto third and will have to play the eliminator.
RR frontrunner for the final playoff spot
RR remain favourites to grab the final playoff berth. Currently on 14 points with one game remaining against eliminated MI on Sunday, RR know a victory at Wankhede will seal qualification on 16 points, because none of the remaining teams in contention can reach 16 points.
Their position is strengthened by the schedule. By the time RR take the field against MI on Sunday afternoon, they will already know the outcomes of LSG vs PBKS, with PBKS being their closest competitor for the final playoff spot.
The ideal scenario for RR is straightforward:- Beat MI
- PBKS lose to LSG
- DC beat KKR
The danger for RR is their modest NRR of +0.083. A heavy defeat to MI combined with wins for PBKS or KKR could still complicate matters. In that scenario, RR will be stuck at 14 points, with PBKS and KKR moving 15 and superior NRR among the two teams deciding the final playoff spot.
RR’s loss will be beneficial for both KKR and DC as they would know exactly what they have to do to claim the final spot in the last league fixture of IPL 2026.
PBKS need to beat LSG and hope RR stumble
PBKS are still alive despite five straight defeats. A win over already-eliminated LSG would take PBKS to 15 points, a total that could yet be enough for fourth place. That will make Sunday’s two fixtures virtual knockouts for both RR and KKR.
However, PBKS’ biggest hope is MI upsetting RR. If RR win and move to 16, PBKS can no longer finish above them.
If PBKS win, and RR lose, then Punjab Kings will closely watch KKR vs DC. Since those two teams face each other directly, a KKR win will complicate matters for PBKS, but a win for DC would mean PBKS will be through.
PBKS do at least possess a healthy NRR advantage over RR and KKR, meaning ties on points could still favour them.
Their equation:- Beat LSG
- Hope RR lose to MI
- Hope DC beat KKR
KKR face virtual knockout against DC
KKR kept themselves alive by beating MI earlier in the week and now sit on 13 points with one game remaining. Their final league clash against DC has effectively become a knockout game.
A win takes KKR to 15 points and keeps them alive. A defeat eliminates them.
But even if KKR beat DC, they still need RR to lose against MI. If RR win and reach 16, KKR cannot catch them.
KKR would also prefer PBKS to lose against LSG because PBKS reaching 15 would likely bring NRR into the picture.
The positive for KKR is that their NRR has finally turned positive at +0.011 after the MI victory, giving them at least a fighting chance in a tie on points.
Their equation:- Hope PBKS lose to LSG
- Hope RR lose to MI
- Beat DC
DC hanging by a thread
DC remain mathematically alive but probably have the toughest task. Their NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the worst among the contenders, meaning ties on points are unlikely to help them.
To stay alive, DC must beat KKR in the final league game. That takes them to 14 points.
But even then, they would still need: RR to lose to MI and PBKS to lose to LSG
Even under that scenario, DC could still require a major NRR swing depending on margins.
In reality, DC likely need:- A big win over KKR
- RR to lose heavily
- PBKS to lose
Anything short of that probably ends their campaign.
With the playoff race tightening, fans can also use
TOI’s IPL Prediction Hub to simulate different match results and check qualification possibilities live.
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