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The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections could hinge on 57 constituencies that were decided by margins of 8,000 votes or fewer in 2021. These razor-thin contests, almost evenly split between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, have now emerged as the most crucial battleground in the state. With 19 seats decided by under 3,000 votes and several by margins of less than 1,000, even minor shifts in voter preference could flip results. Most of these seats are concentrated in South Bengal, particularly in districts like Bankura, Paschim Bardhaman, Purulia, and the Medinipur region. A more fragmented contest in 2026, with multiple parties and alliances in play, could further complicate outcomes. These constituencies are likely to play a decisive role in determining whether the TMC retains power or the BJP closes the gap significantly.