Gold, silver rate outlook: Prices seen range-bound; Middle East tensions, US data in focus

Gold and silver are likely to trade in a range with a positive bias in the coming week as investors track geopolitical developments in West Asia and key global macroeconomic data, analysts said, according to PTI.Market participants will also watch the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision due mid-week for further cues."Going into the week ahead, focus continues to remain on developments in the Gulf region - any sign of further escalation and de-escalation may drive prices, accordingly," said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd.He added that investors will closely track global indicators including services PMI readings across major economies, along with US data on durable goods, GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and CPI inflation.In the previous holiday-shortened week, gold futures for June delivery rose Rs 2,425, or 1.65%, while silver futures for May gained Rs 4,541, or 2% on the Multi Commodity Exchange.Brokerage firm Choice Broking said the recovery in gold and silver prices followed three consecutive weeks of decline, supported by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including a weakening rupee at record lows and a decline in Bitcoin as investors shifted flows towards bullion.In global markets, gold futures for June delivery rose USD 155.4, or 3.43%, to settle at USD 4,679.7 per ounce on Comex. Silver for May delivery increased USD 3.13, or 4.5%, to close at USD 72.92 per ounce."Gold prices closed in positive for the second straight week, ending with a weekly gain of nearly 4 per cent, while silver too was up for the week, tracking higher gold and industrial metals," Mer said.He noted that prices held firm despite stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data, which reinforced expectations that the economy remains resilient and that monetary policy continues to be accommodative.Mer added that some liquidation was seen in gold due to ETF selling and reduced central bank buying, followed by a corrective move after US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran heightened geopolitical tensions.Choice Broking said uncertainties persist as Iran rejected a US peace proposal and maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, while strong physical demand continued to support prices. Silver imports into China during the first two months of 2026 reached an eight-year high of 206.76 metric tonnes, tightening global supply. Analysts expect the overall trend in precious metals to remain sideways to bullish in the near term, with investors also monitoring US unemployment data and jobless claims for signals on policy direction and bullion prices.