Tamil Nadu polls: Stalin holds edge, but dark horse Vijay keeps rivals guessing

After five weeks of intense campaigning by four contending sides in Tamil Nadu, one question remains: will the disruptor help the incumbent, the opposition or himself ? Conventional analyses still give the M K Stalin-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) an edge over Edappadi K Palaniswami’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but the vote share of Vijay’s TVK could tilt the balance.

The campaign began as a contest over governance and welfare, and gradually sharpened into a larger political argument about identity, federalism and the state’s place in the Union. Thanks to Stalin’s efforts at making it a Centrevs-state battle, the campaign maintained a nationalised tone punctuated by Tamil Nadu’s distinct political idioms.

DMK began the campaign with the advantage of a strong alliance, a governance track record and visible welfare delivery. Chief minister and DMK president Stalin, who launched his campaign symbolically from his father M Karunanidhi’s native Tiruvarur, foregrounded schemes for women and youth. As the days passed, his messaging shifted to a sustained attack on the BJP-led Union govt. Increasingly, Stalin reminded voters of the “injustice” the Centre had done to the state, and warned voters what it might do if its ally, AIADMK, returned to power.

Gradually, the monthly cash transfers and free bus rides for women and the free breakfast scheme for school students receded behind a sharper political pitch. At the peak of the campaign, Stalin donned a black shirt and dramatically set fire to a copy of the delimitation bill, framing the election as a defence of Tamil Nadu’s rights against Delhi. Yet, in his quieter, direct outreach — his morning walks and surprise visits to beneficiaries — he returned to the language of welfare and delivery.



At the close of campaigning, Stalin attempted to strike that balance. “My first signature after getting re-elected would be on the order to distribute ₹8,000 coupons to women,” he said.

Deputy chief minister Udhayanidhi Stalin crisscrossed the state with van-top speeches. While Stalin spoke in chaste Tamil, Udhayanidhi opted for a more conversational, witty style, often targeting EPS. Congress netas Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, apast from AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, campaigned for the alliance, but Rahul and Stalin not sharing a dais triggered rumours of a disconnect.

NDA brought in its own national firepower, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah holding roadshows and rallies. While Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu campaigned briefly, the alliance’s most consistent campaigner was EPS.

Positioning himself as a selfmade leader, EPS kept his messaging simple and direct, focusing on women’s safety, drugs and alleged governance failures of DMK. Beginning his post-model code campaign in Mylapore for BJP candidate Tamilisai Soundararajan, he travelled extensively, primarily attacking Stalin and Udhayanidhi. Repeatedly called by DMK a “BJP slave”, and after Udhayanidhi taunted him with an old image of his falling at V K Sasikala’s feet, EPS made personal attacks at the Karunanidhi family. The alliance arithmetic — bringing together BJP, PMK and AMMK — added heft to NDA.

The exclusion of former BJP state chief K Annamalai from the candidate list led to reports of discontent, but he eventually joined the campaign. State BJP president Nainar Nagendran found his voice drowned in the high-decibel presence of national netas, while PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss focused on consolidating vanniyar support in northern and western districts for NDA.

And the wildcard Vijay continued to wreak havoc. Campaigning less but drawing large crowds, he attempted to frame the contest as one between DMK and TVK, targeting Stalin while avoiding direct attacks on EPS and BJP. Contesting in Perambur and Trichy East, and fielding candidates in 233 seats, his presence loomed larger than his limited campaign hours suggested.

A TOI analysis of the final week of the campaign showed Stalin spoke for 356 minutes, EPS for 800 minutes, and Vijay just 35. Yet, Vijay’s appearances carried high recall value — an indication that visibility and impact are no longer directly proportional in the age of spectacle politics.

Both Stalin and EPS chose largely to ignore Vijay. The nearest Stalin got to target him was when he urged voters in Perambur to choose between an “inaccessible newcomer who enacts a drama” and “a leader who would be accessible and responsive”. Naam Tamilar Katchi’s Seeman made up for the DMK and AIADMK by targeting Vijay while waxing eloquent on Tamil identity and self-respect politics.

All the contenders took to social media with a vengeance, churning out promos, influencer videos and memes. Despite its strong arguments against the perceived rise in crime and corruption, the AIADMK-led alliance couldn’t turn the anti-incumbent sentiment into a wave. If TVK chips away from the anti-govt votes — and fails to win big on its own — and if the average voter chooses continuity and welfare, DMK could be on a strong wicket.

Hot seats

Edappadi
This seat in Salem district has long been the home turf of ADMK general secretary EPS. He has won five of the eight poll battles that he has fought here, including three in a row since 2011. Backed by his community, the gounders, Palaniswami would be feeling confident about his chances here despite the challenge from DMK and colleagues-turned-foes such as O Panneerselvam and V K Sasikala.

Past Winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (ADMK) Lalgudi
Leema Rose Martin, wife of lottery baron Santiago Martin and the richest candidate in these polls — she’s declared assets worth more than Rs 1,000 crore — is in the fray here. She joined ADMK only in Feb, but has the ADMK rank and file working overtime to ensure her victory. DMK, which has won this seat eight times since 1971, has fielded a low-profile candidate to replace sitting MLA Soundarapandian.

Past Winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)Kolathur
Kolathur in Chennai has been represented by CM MK Stalin since it was formed in 2011. In 2021, he defeated his ADMK rival by a margin of more than 70,000 votes. DMK would be banking on Stalin’s accessibility, governance record, and the party’s organisational strength to maintain its winning run here. The opposition has highlighted local issues and governance shortcomings.

Past Winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK )Madurai Central
IT minister Palanivel Thiagarajan is seeking a hat-trick of wins here. But he faces a fight, as ADMK’s backing ally Puthiya Neethi Katchi (PNK)’s Sundar C. The actor-director’s wife, Khushbu, herself an actor, has added a touch of glamour to his campaign. TVK’s VMS Mustafa and NTK’s K Abdul Hakkim could split the minority votes, which might hurt DMK.

Past Winners: 2011 (DMDK); 2016, 2021 (DMK) Perambur
This seat in north Chennai is where actor Joseph Vijay is making his poll debut. With a large working-class population, it was a Left bastion before turning into a DMK stronghold in recent years. Incumbent Sekar won by a margin of more than 54,000 votes in 2021. Vijay chose the seat because 40,000 voters signed up on the TVP app and he hopes to win over Dalits and minorities.

Past Winners: 2011 (CPM); 2016 (ADMK); 2021 (DMK)Chepauk– Triplicane
This Chennai seat has been with DMK since 2011. Deputy CM and CM MK Stalin’s son, Udhayanidhi Stalin, won here by more than 69,000 votes in his first election in 2021. It has a sizeable number of Muslim voters who can shape the outcome. DMK’s focused on its welfare measures while the opposition spoke of local grievances such as parking issues, narrow roads, etc.

Past Winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)



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