MLC poll: Solapur may be easy for BJP; in Satara-Sangli, bitterness within Mahayuti may play a role

Kolhapur: The BJP is expecting a straightforward victory in the Solapur local bodies’ MLC election, backed by a clear numerical edge, but faces a far more complex contest in the Satara-Sangli constituency, where strained ties with its Mahayuti allies — Shiv Sena and NCP — could prove decisive.

The elections to the Solapur and Satara-Sangli seats are part of 17 legislative council constituencies from the local bodies’ segment going to polls, with the model code of conduct already in force. Voting is scheduled on June 18, with counting and results on June 22.

In Solapur, BJP’s dominance in recent local body elections has effectively tilted the scales. Of the total 616 voters, the halfway mark stands at 309, and BJP alone commands 310 voters following its sweeping wins in the Solapur Municipal Corporation and zilla parishad. The arithmetic makes the contest “a cake-walk” for the party, though internal dynamics over candidate selection remain sensitive.

The frontrunner is Prashant Paricharak, who had won the seat earlier as an independent, defeating NCP’s Deepak Salunkhe despite the latter being backed by Congress and the Peasants and Workers’ Party. However, politicians like former Barshi MLA Rajendra Raut — credited with boosting BJP’s performance in zilla parishad and panchayat samiti polls — are also in contention, making the choice of candidate critical despite the favourable numbers.

In contrast, the Satara-Sangli seat presents a tougher battle. While BJP is the single-largest party with around 232 local body representatives, it falls well short of the 427 votes required for a majority. This makes support from Shiv Sena and NCP essential — ties that have been strained, particularly after allegations that BJP misused its position to install its preferred president in the Satara zilla parishad despite lacking a majority.

The opposition, too, is exploring options. Congress and its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies together command around 139 votes and are attempting to consolidate support. A senior Congress functionary, requesting anonymity, said, “The discussions are on with Shiv Sena and NCP to take them along to put up a fight against BJP.”

The stakes are heightened as these elections come after a prolonged delay. While one-third of MLCs retire every two years after a six-year term, elections to these local body constituencies had been pending for years due to the absence of elected bodies, with most civic institutions under administrator rule until recently.

So far, neither Mahayuti nor MVA has announced candidates or formally outlined seat-sharing arrangements. However, indications suggest that top leadership, especially within Mahayuti, may allocate seats based on party strength to avoid internal conflict and ensure victory.

Political observers say candidate profile and financial clout will play a decisive role. Prakash Pawar, professor of political science at Shivaji University, Kolhapur, said, “The partys will bank on the candidates who have ability to spend, and he or she should be of some help to the party’s financial apparatus.”

Assessing the broader picture, Pawar added, “BJP can secure wins in most MLC constituencies as it has emerged as the party to win highest number of seats in local bodies. However, the BJP will have to ensure the rebels don’t raise their hands, otherwise the election may flip and might be embarrassing to the party. Luckily for BJP, there is no one in opposition to give a coherent fight. Even if they fight together they don’t have numbers. In case BJP falls short, it may take along other Mahayuti partners.”

With numbers firmly in its favour in Solapur but alliance management critical in Satara-Sangli, BJP’s ability to balance internal ambitions and coalition equations will determine whether it converts its local body dominance into a clean sweep.