Sympathy factor no longer an absolute trump card to win bypolls, say political observers

Kolhapur: As the NCP and the BJP make attempts to get their candidates elected unopposed in the forthcoming bypolls for the Baramati and Rahuri assembly seats, respectively, political observers have pointed out that sympathy factor is not always a guarantee for the kin of a deceased sitting MLA to win the bypolls. They point out some of the past bypoll results to buttress this point.Gone are the days when the passing away of a local MLA, especially a tall leader, sways the bypoll in the favour of his/her immediate relative. Similarly, gone are the days when a consensus used to be built over not to field candidates against the kin of a deceased MLA in bypoll, said the observers.Consider this: In May 2021, BJP's Samadhan Autade won over NCP's Bhagirath Bhalke in the bypoll for Pandharpur-Mangalwedha assembly seat that fell vacant after the death of sitting MLA Bharat Bhalke. The sympathy factor did not work in favour of Bhagirath Bhalke.In Feb 2023, Ravindra Dhangekar, the then Congress nominee, won over BJP's Hemant Rasne in the bypoll for Kasbapeth assembly seat in Pune which had fallen vacant due to the demise of BJP's sitting MLA Mukta Tilak. While Rasne was not related to the Tilak family, the BJP was banking on the sympathy factor and the fact that it had never lost this seat for three decades. However, Dhangekar won the bypoll.In some cases, the bypoll results were a close shave for the candidate from the family of a deceased sitting MLA.Like the 2022 bypoll for Kolhapur North assembly seat that fell vacant due to the demise of Congress MLA Chandrakant Jadhav. Jadhav's widow, Jayashree, managed to win the bypoll against BJP's Satyajit Kadam despite the latter garnering 44% of the votes.In Oct 2021, the BJP chose to field Subhash Sabne from the Deglur (SC) assembly seat in Nanded district despite a sympathy wave in favour of Congress's Jitesh Antapurkar considering the demise of the latter's father and sitting MLA Raosaheb Antapurkar. Jitesh won the bypoll as against the expectation of an unopposed election.Similarly, in Feb 22, the NCP fielded Vitthal alias Nana Kate from Chinchwad assembly seat in a bypoll arising from BJP sitting MLA Laxman Jagtap's demise. Jagtap's widow, Ashwini, won the seat for BJP but had to face the contest instead of getting elected unopposed.Monday, April 6, is the deadline for filing of nomination for the Baramati and Rahuri bypolls. The Baramati assembly seat fell vacant after the untimely demise of deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash in Baramati on Jan 28 while The Rahuri assembly seat in Ahilyanagar district fell vacant due to the death of BJP's sitting MLA Shivajiro Kardile from a cardiac arrest on Oct 17, 2025.Widow of Ajit Pawar, Sunetra, who is now the NCP chief and deputy chief minister, is all set to contest the Baramati assembly seat while the BJP has declared Shivajirao Kardile's son, Akshay, as its nominee from Rahuri. In both these cases, the parties are banking on the sympathy factor and are trying to convince the opposition parties to not field their candidates to ensure unopposed elections.However, the NCP (SP) is planning to contest Rahuri while the Congress has announced that it will field a candidate against Sunetra Pawar in Baramati. If the two opposition parties do not back out then voting and election will be certain and it is in this scenario that the observers feel that sympathy factor cannot be taken as a guarantee to victory.In the past, the opposition parties would reach a consensus over not fielding a candidate against the kin of a deceased MLA, particularly a tall leader. For example: After the passing away of NCP's former state home minister RR Patil in 2015, his widow, Sumantai, faced no major opposition from key political parties. Similarly, Congress's Vishwajeet Kadam won unopposed in 2018 following the demise of his father and former minister Patangrao Kadam.Ravindra Bhanage, professor of political science in Shivaji University Kolhapur said, "The sympathy factor is an easy one to bank on to win. However, in recent years, the voters have got more aware and don't get swayed easily by the sympathy factor. They instead check who are their candidates who can address their concerns for the remainder part of the assembly tenure. People also have started disliking tickets given to someone from within the family of a deceased sitting MLA. If at all the member is competent enough the people vote, however if he or she is not it is difficult to get votes."Bhanage said that Sunetra Pawar is on strong footing even if she faces a contest. "She is made the DCM in place of her husband. She has also worked among the people of Baramati for long and therefore not new or not something like being parachuted into electoral politics. In the case of Rahuri, NCP(SP) is demanding a ticket as their candidate has won in the 2019 election and wants to get back the seat lost to BJP in 2024." said the professor.