Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: Axis My India gives 100+ seats to TVK; other pollsters back Stalin's return
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THE TIMES OF INDIA | Apr 29, 2026, 23:23:18 IST
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Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: Axis My India gives 100+ seats to TVK; other pollsters back Stalin's return

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: With voting for the high-stakes West Bengal assembly elections 2026 concluding today evening, attention has now shifted to exit poll projections, which are expected to be released after 6.30 pm, in line with Election Commission rules.

The Tamil Nadu assembly election presents a layered political contest shaped by welfare policies, governance performance, identity politics and economic concerns. While parties differ in their messaging, there is considerable overlap in the issues they are targeting ranging from household expenses to federal rights.

The ruling DMK, led by M. K. Stalin, has centred its campaign around the “Dravidian model” of governance. The party is highlighting its welfare programmes focused on women, education and social security, along with improvements in infrastructure and public services. It is also strongly pushing the narrative of protecting Tamil Nadu’s autonomy, framing the election as a contest between the state and the Centre to consolidate regional identity and political support.

On the other side, the AIADMK-led NDA, under Edappadi K. Palaniswami, is focusing on anti-incumbency and governance concerns. The alliance is raising issues such as law and order, corruption allegations and the rising cost of living, while also pointing to urban challenges like flooding, waste management and traffic congestion. Alongside criticism, it is pitching a development narrative backed by central government schemes to appeal to urban and middle-class voters.

A new dimension has been added by actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is adopting a strong anti-establishment stance and drawing attention with its campaign outreach.

Tamil Nadu has also recorded a remarkable voter turnout of 85.15%, an increase of over 11 percentage points compared to the 2021 elections, reflecting heightened political engagement. Western districts such as Karur, Salem and Namakkal reported some of the highest turnout figures, with several constituencies crossing the 90% mark.

Exit polls, which are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, are typically released 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase. The Election Commission enforces strict restrictions on their publication under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to ensure that voter behaviour is not influenced while polling is still underway.
23:23 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: AIADMK candidate Manoharan predicts landslide, backs EPS leadership
AIADMK candidate from Erode East Manoharan expressed confidence of a sweeping victory, asserting that the party would return to power under Edappadi K. Palaniswami.

"AIADMK will definitely win 190 to 200 seats and form the government under the leadership of Edappadi Palaniswami...The projects brought by the AIADMK government have been shelved by the DMK government. We sought votes by promising that the shelved projects will be implemented as soon as the AIADMK government comes to power again."
22:54 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls: BJP’s Kanagasabapathy flags uncertainty, says TVK may dent both alliances
On exit poll projections in Tamil Nadu, BJP leader P Kanagasabapathy said survey results should be viewed with caution, noting that outcomes can vary significantly from projections. He added that while the NDA had expected a stronger showing, some exit polls indicate an edge for the DMK alliance, and the role of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam could prove decisive in shaping the final outcome.

"As far as exit poll results are concerned, we all know that sometimes even 60 per cent of such surveys can go wrong. However, we had expected the NDA to win in Tamil Nadu. But at least some of the exit polls are showing that the DMK alliance is gaining a majority. In Tamil Nadu, TVK, led by Vijay, is playing a very important role in this election. We don't yet know what the exact impact will be, but he is certainly eating into the votes of the DMK alliance, and possibly the AIADMK alliance as well. If the AIADMK alliance ends up with fewer seats, it would suggest that TVK has taken a significant share of the anti-establishment votes."
21:41 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: AIADMK’s P Saravanan claims ground support, questions pro-DMK bias
In Madurai, Tamil Nadu, AIADMK candidate from North constituency P. Saravanan said exit poll narratives do not reflect the ground reality, citing strong voter turnout and suggesting bias in sections of the media.

"... Many media outlets are pro-DMK, while larger surveys show AIADMK ahead. On the ground, turnout was huge," he said.
21:27 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls: Congress’s K Suresh backs DMK return, predicts comfortable majority
On exit polls for the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Congress MP K. Suresh expressed confidence that the DMK-led alliance will return to power.

"DMK alliance will form the government, they will get a comfortable majority. MK Stalin will again be elected as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. The people of Tamil Nadu stand with DMK alliance..."
21:08 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: Tamilisai Soundararajan urges caution, says wait for May 4 results
On exit polls in Tamil Nadu, BJP leader Tamilisai Soundararajan said the projections are not definitive and emphasised the need to wait for counting day.

"Exit polls are not the exact polls, we should wait for the exact polls on May 4th..."
20:47 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls: BJP leader calls projections ‘signals’, awaits final verdict
In Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, BJP State Vice President P Kanagasabapathi said exit polls should be seen only as indicative, stressing that the final outcome will be clear on counting day.

"These are all exit polls. I know sometimes even 50 to 60% of the exit polls go wrong. But anyhow, this is a signal. You know, the final results will come on May 4th. You know, as far as Assam is concerned, we expected very good results. We expected more seats compared to the previous elections," he said.
20:25 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: TVK dismisses exit polls, claims sweep and confident majority in Tamil Nadu polls
In Chennai, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam spokesperson Radhan Pandit dismissed exit poll projections for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, asserting that the party is confident of a sweeping victory based on its own internal assessment and ground surveys.

"We are just ignoring these exit polls. I am sure we are going to sweep this election by above 170 or above 140. We studied very well. We had our personal survey. We are sure about a minimum 45% of vote-banking. It's not between 20-25 per cent... 108 hours to go for the election counting... 109th hour, we are going to take the oath. Our Vijay will become the Chief Minister extraordinarily," he told ANI.
20:09 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls: BJP confident of AIADMK return, cites high early turnout
In Chennai, BJP leader Vinoj P Selvam said voter turnout patterns indicate a strong mandate emerging in Tamil Nadu, asserting that high participation in early hours and sustained voting through the day reflects a decisive mood among the electorate. He added that the outcome would be reflected on counting day, with confidence that former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami would return to power.

"Beyond all exit polls, what is very important is the people's mandate. This election is very different from all the previous elections which Tamil Nadu has seen. If you notice the trend in Tamil Nadu, usually, polling is very high in the last one hour between 5 pm and 6 pm. But this election, the polling was maximum between 7 am and 9 am, even during the extremely hot hours of say between 11 am and 3 pm, voting was the turnout was very high in number. By 3 PM, the polling had already crossed about 82%, which goes to say a lot about the mood of the people... The results of which will be reflected very clearly on the 4th May, and EPS will again be seated as the Chief Minister, and Tamil Nadu will again be back to its glorious ways of gaining and winning rather than losing out on industries, on businesses and on various verticals to neighbouring states," he said.
19:54 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Axis My India gives 100+ seats to TVK
Exit poll by Axis My India projects DMK+ winning 92–110 seats, AIADMK+ securing 22–32 seats, and TVK emerging strongly with 98–120 seats in Tamil Nadu.
19:25 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: JVC projects AIADMK lead, DMK trails; TVK makes modest entry
Exit poll findings by Jan Ki Baat Voter Connect indicate a lead for AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, projecting 128–147 seats, while DMK+ is estimated to secure 75–95 seats. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is expected to win 8–15 seats, with others unlikely to register a significant presence.
19:19 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls: DMK confident of landslide, targets 180+ seats
Reacting to exit poll projections in Tamil Nadu, DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai expressed strong confidence in a sweeping victory for the party, asserting that the alliance would outperform even the current estimates.

"Right from the day of the election, we have been maintaining that we will win this election with a massive margin. And the exit polls, though they are conservative in my estimate, the numbers given by these pollsters are conservative. I am very confident that we will cross the 180 mark, and the percentage of vote difference between the DMK combined and the next alliance would be huge. It will be more than 5%. We were there on the ground. People have overwhelmingly supported the DMK party only because of the welfare measures and the aura of our Chief Minister, the rock star Chief Minister of the state of Tamil Nadu. He has single-handedly carried the entire elections, and now on 4th, he will carry the DMK alliance, and he is going to be the next Chief Minister of the state..."
19:06 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: Pollsters back Stalin return; TVK a key disruptor

Exit polls suggest chief minister MK Stalin's DMK alliance is poised to retain power in Tamil Nadu, though with a reduced majority. Newcomer Vijay's TVK shows potential to influence traditional vote bases, with projections varying but indicating a notable debut. The AIADMK faces persistent challenges, while the DMK aims for a significant milestone of consecutive terms.

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18:51 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: DMK+ set for comfortable lead, TVK to make significant impact in debut polls, predicts People Pulse
Exit polls by Peoples Pulse project a clear advantage for the ruling DMK+ in Tamil Nadu, estimating 125–145 seats, while AIADMK+ is seen trailing with 65–80 seats. Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is projected to make a notable debut with 18–24 seats, potentially emerging as a key player in the state’s political landscape.
18:46 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Matrize also gives edge to DMK alliance
Matrize predicted that DMK+ will have 122-132 seats, AIADMK+ to secure 87-100, TVK to have10-12 seats while remaining other parties to settle at 0-6.
18:44 (IST) Apr 29
Exit polls out, predictions suggest edge for DMK
According to P-Marq, DMK+ will have 125-145 seats, with AIADMK trailing with 65-85, while TVK will make slight impact with 16-26 seats.
18:17 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: TVK leader Vijay on spiritual tour ahead of the poll results on May 4
Actor-turned-politician Vijay visited the Shirdi Sai Baba Temple, where he offered prayers dressed in a blue shirt and denims, drawing large crowds of fans who gathered outside for a glimpse.

The founder of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam had earlier visited the Tiruchendur Murugan Temple as part of what is being seen as a spiritual tour ahead of the Tamil Nadu assembly election results on May 4, following polling held on April 23.

Vijay is also awaiting the release of his upcoming film Jana Nayagan, directed by H. Vinoth, which is currently facing legal hurdles with the Central Board of Film Certification.
18:14 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: What turnout trends may reveal about voter mood

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: All eyes on evening numbers before May 4 results
With voting over and turnout remaining strong across the state, all eyes arenow on Tamil Nadu’s exit poll numbers expected this evening. The projectionswill provide the first broad snapshot of a high-stakes contest involving theDMK-led alliance, AIADMK front and new entrant TVK. While exit polls are notofficial results, they often shape political narratives ahead of counting day.The final verdict for all 234 constituencies will be announced on May 4.
17:38 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: What turnout trends may reveal about voter mood
Strongturnout across Tamil Nadu has sparked debate over what it may reveal aboutvoter sentiment. High participation in western and urban constituenciessuggests both organisational strength and heightened interest in the contest.Historically, turnout surges can reflect anti-incumbency, support forcontinuity or enthusiasm around new political options. However, turnout alonedoes not indicate a winner. Exit polls expected later today will offer aclearer picture of whether the numbers translated into gains for the DMK,AIADMK or other parties.
17:03 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: When will projections be released today?
Exitpoll projections for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections are expected to bereleased later this evening after polling restrictions are lifted. UnderElection Commission guidelines, exit polls cannot be published until 30 minutesafter polling ends in the final phase of elections. For the current cycle,projections are expected after 6.30 pm today. Once released, they will provideearly estimates of seat tallies and alliance performance ahead of officialcounting scheduled for May 4.
16:33 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Turnout jump seen as sign of intense voter engagement
TamilNadu’s turnout surge in the 2026 elections is being seen as evidence ofheightened political engagement across the state. Increased participation hasbeen linked to stronger booth-level mobilisation, competitive campaigning andinterest generated by a multi-cornered contest. High turnout often signalsmotivated voters and can reshape results in closely contested seats. Withnearly every region reporting solid participation levels, exit polls latertoday are expected to test whether this enthusiasm benefited the rulingalliance, opposition blocs or emerging players.
16:08 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Vijay’s TVK adds new dimension to state contest
Actor-turned-politicianVijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has added fresh intrigue to the Tamil NaduAssembly election battle. While the main contest remains between DMK and AIADMKalliances, TVK’s campaign drew large crowds and heightened public interestacross several constituencies. Observers are closely watching whether Vijay’sentry has split votes, attracted first-time voters or altered traditionalequations. Exit poll projections later this evening may indicate whether thenew party has emerged as a spoiler, kingmaker or long-term political force.
15:40 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: DMK vs AIADMK battle enters final wait for projections
Withpolling completed, Tamil Nadu’s main contest between the DMK-led alliance andthe AIADMK-led front now enters the exit poll phase. Chief Minister M. K.Stalin is seeking a second straight term, while Edappadi K. Palaniswami isaiming to return the AIADMK to power after five years. The state’s politicalcontest remains centred around the two Dravidian giants, but turnout patternsand new entrants may complicate the race. Exit polls later today are expectedto offer the first broad signals of voter preference.
15:20 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: A few seats lag turnout trend despite statewide surge
WhileTamil Nadu saw strong overall participation, a few constituencies recordedcomparatively lower turnout figures. Palayamkottai reported 68.97 percent,while Killiyoor stood at 71.29 percent. Despite these exceptions, mostconstituencies comfortably crossed the 80 percent mark, underlining broad voterenthusiasm across the state. Lower turnout in select seats may still shapelocal results, particularly where margins are expected to be narrow. Exit polldata expected after polling restrictions end may provide insights into howthese constituencies voted.
14:56 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Urban seats show sharp rise in voter participation
Urbanconstituencies in Tamil Nadu, which traditionally record lower participation,witnessed notable gains in the 2026 Assembly elections. Seats such as AnnaNagar, Egmore and Velachery crossed the mid-80 percent range, reflectingstronger mobilisation among city voters. The rise in urban turnout could havesignificant political implications, especially in Chennai and surroundingregions where closely fought contests are common. Exit polls later this eveningare expected to indicate whether higher city turnout translated into gains forruling or opposition alliances.
14:39 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Karur, Veerapandi among top turnout constituencies
Several Tamil Nadu constituencies posted exceptional voter turnout figures, with Karur and Veerapandi leading the state at 93.40 percent. Other high-performing seats included Kulithalai, Kumarapalayam and Perundurai, all recording turnout above 92 percent. The strong participation in these constituencies could become a decisive factor in close contests. Analysts often view such high turnout as a sign of intense voter mobilisation and competitive races. Exit poll projections later today may offer early clues on whether these regions backed incumbents or opposition challengers.
14:36 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Strong turnout across state sets stage for keenly watched projections
Tamil Nadu recorded robust voter participation in the 2026 Assembly elections, setting the stage for closely watched exit poll projections this evening. Constituency-wise trends show strong turnout across regions, with several seats crossing the 90 percent mark. High participation is expected to play a crucial role in tightly contested constituencies and could influence the final outcome when votes are counted on May 4. Political observers are now watching whether the turnout surge reflects support for continuity, change or the emergence of new players in the state’s evolving political landscape.
14:01 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Strong turnout across state sets stage for keenly watched projections
Tamil Nadu recorded robust voter participation in the 2026 Assembly elections, setting the stage for closely watched exit poll projections this evening. Constituency-wise trends show strong turnout across regions, with several seats crossing the 90 percent mark. High participation is expected to play a crucial role in tightly contested constituencies and could influence the final outcome when votes are counted on May 4. Political observers are now watching whether the turnout surge reflects support for continuity, change or the emergence of new players in the state’s evolving political landscape.
13:10 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: TN DGP cancels leave of police personnel ahead of May 4 counting of votes
The Tamil Nadu Director General of Police (DGP) has ordered the cancellation of leave for all police personnel from May 2 until further orders, in view of the upcoming vote counting for the Assembly elections scheduled on May 4.

The directive applies to officers across all ranks, from constables to senior officials, and is aimed at ensuring maximum deployment of forces to maintain law and order during the counting process.

Senior police officials said elaborate security arrangements are being put in place at counting centres, with additional personnel to be deployed in sensitive and vulnerable locations across the state.

According to the order, no police personnel will be permitted to proceed on leave during this period, considering the importance of the counting exercise and the need for strict vigilance. However, officials clarified that those already on leave for valid and unavoidable reasons, such as medical emergencies, maternity leave, childcare responsibilities, or educational commitments, will be exempted from the directive.

The move comes as part of a broader effort by the state administration to ensure that the counting of votes is conducted smoothly and without any disruption.

Police presence will be intensified not only at counting centres but also in surrounding areas to manage crowds and prevent any potential law and order issues following the announcement of results.

The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in a single phase on April 23, and the state witnessed peaceful polling across constituencies. Following the completion of voting, Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) have been securely transported to designated counting centres under strict supervision.

Officials said the EVMs are being kept under round-the-clock security, with multi-layered arrangements including CCTV surveillance, armed police personnel, and restricted access zones to ensure their safety and integrity until the counting day.

Preparations for the May 4 counting are progressing at a brisk pace, with coordination between the police, election authorities, and district administrations. Measures such as route planning, crowd control, and emergency response systems are being finalised to ensure that the counting process and subsequent declaration of results take place in a peaceful and orderly manner across Tamil Nadu.
12:37 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Constituency-wise turnout trends show strong voter participation across Tamil Nadu
Constituency-level voting data indicates consistently high participation across Tamil Nadu, with several seats crossing the 90 percent mark. Karur and Veerapandi recorded turnout of 93.40 percent, while Kulithalai, Kumarapalayam and Perundurai also reported figures above 92 percent. Urban constituencies that traditionally witness lower participation also saw notable gains, with Anna Nagar, Egmore and Velachery crossing the mid-80 percent range, reflecting stronger mobilisation among city voters. A few seats registered comparatively lower turnout, including Palayamkottai at 68.97 percent and Killiyoor at 71.29 percent. Despite these exceptions, the overall state average remained strong, with most constituencies comfortably exceeding 80 percent participation.
12:02 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2026: Exit polls to offer early clues in tight contest
The stage is set for a high-stakes verdict in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, with results for all 234 constituencies to be announced on May 4 following polling on April 23.

With counting yet to begin, attention has now turned to exit polls, which are expected to give early signals of voter preferences in what is shaping up to be a closely fought election.

The main contest is between the DMK-led alliance and the AIADMK-led front. Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is seeking a second consecutive term, while Edappadi K. Palaniswami is aiming to bring the AIADMK back to power after five years.

Tamil Nadu’s political landscape continues to be dominated by Dravidian parties, with national players in supporting roles. The Bharatiya Janata Party is contesting in alliance with the AIADMK, while the Indian National Congress remains aligned with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

The AIADMK, which last won the state in 2016 under J. Jayalalithaa, has struggled to regain its footing after her death, with leadership shifts involving O. Panneerselvam and Palaniswami reshaping the party’s direction.

Adding a new dimension to the contest is actor-turned-politician Vijay, whose party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, has drawn large crowds and heightened interest in the election.

Tamil Nadu recorded around 4.87 crore votes, reflecting strong voter participation across the state. The turnout could prove decisive, especially in closely contested seats.
12:01 (IST) Apr 29
Election Opinion Poll 2026: Tamil Nadu turnout dips to 85.15%
The Election Commission on April 9 revised Tamil Nadu’s April 23 voting percentage to 85.10%, down from the earlier estimate of 85.15%, a decrease of 0.05%.
This marginal correction accounts for 28,672 voters, pegging the current state total at 4.87 crore votes. The ECI is yet to release the final polling data and the provisional data is subject to change. Meanwhile, ECI has recommended there is no need for re-polling in any booths.

In 2011, the state saw a high of 78.29% during a significant wave of political change. This dipped to 74.84% in 2016 and further to 73.63% in 2021.

The 2026 spike is largely attributed to a rigorous cleanup of the electoral rolls, removing millions of "ghost voters", which naturally increased the turnout percentage.
Furthermore, the entry of new political forces like Vijay’s TVK and the persistent mobilization in the North-West "battleground" districts (such as Karur and Dharmapuri, where turnouts exceeded 90%) transformed the election into a high-octane, multi-cornered contest that brought voters to the booths in droves.
12:01 (IST) Apr 29
With campaign activity picking up across Tamil Nadu, the 2026 assembly election is shaping up as a high-stakes contest that could test the durability of the state’s long-standing Dravidian political order. What was once a largely bipolar contest is now evolving into a more complex, multi-cornered fight, with new entrants and shifting voter alignments adding layers of uncertainty.

At the centre of the contest is MK Stalin, who heads into the election seeking a renewed mandate after completing a full term in office. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will rely on its governance record, welfare delivery, and alliance network, but also faces anti-incumbency, economic concerns, and opposition attacks on issues such as law and order and corruption.
12:00 (IST) Apr 29
TN Election Exit Poll 2026: When will the 2026 Assembly election results be declared?
Counting of votes for Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry will take place on May 4. The results for all five states will be announced the same day.
12:00 (IST) Apr 29
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: What exactly are exit polls?
Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted with voters as they leave polling booths. They use statistical sampling to estimate likely election outcomes based on voter responses.

Unlike opinion polls, which measure public mood before voting, exit polls are based on actual voters. However, their accuracy can vary depending on sample size.
Exit polls are usually released 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase of an election. For the current assembly elections, projections are expected to start after 6:30 pm, as per Election Commission rules.

The restriction is meant to ensure that voter behaviour is not influenced while polling is still underway. The Election Commission of India enforces this rule under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: With polling underway in Tamil Nadu, attention will shift to exit polls and early trends once voting concludes later today. The state’s contest reflects a complex mix of welfare politics, governance debates and identity-driven narratives, setting the stage for closely watched results.

Tamil Nadu has also recorded strong voter participation trends, with turnout expected to remain a key indicator of voter enthusiasm. In previous elections, western districts such as Karur, Salem and Namakkal saw some of the highest turnout figures, with several constituencies crossing the 90% mark.

According to Election Commission guidelines, exit polls are strictly prohibited until 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase. The Election Commission is expected to allow release of Tamil Nadu exit poll results after 6.30 pm today, once polling formally concludes.