WTC Final scenarios: What are India's chances after the loss at MCG?

India lost seven wickets in the final session of the fourth Test against Australia on Monday to concede lead in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. The 184-run win gave the hosts a 2-1 lead in the series with one contest, in Sydney, to go.

The win took Australia to second place in the World Test Championship (WTC) Standings, on 61.46 percentage points. India, meanwhile, remain third on 52.78 points. South Africa, who beat Pakistan on Sunday in a thriller of their own, are top of the pile with 66.67 points and have assured themselves of a maiden WTC Final appearance at Lord's in June.



With the defeat, India hold a very small chance to make the WTC Final. Even if Rohit Sharma-led side win the fifth and final Test in Sydney, they would only reach 55.26 percentage points which would be lesser than Australia's 57.84 for the loss.

The only way India can overhaul Australia now is if Sri Lanka do them a favour in the two-match series.

LATEST WORLD TEST CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS

No.	Teams	M	W	L	T	D	N/R	PT	PCT
1	South Africa	11	7	3	0	1	0	88	66.67
2	Australia	17	11	4	0	2	0	130	63.73
3	India	19	9	10	0	2	0	114	50.00
4	New Zealand	14	7	7	0	0	0	81	48.21
5	Sri Lanka	11	5	6	0	0	0	60	45.45
6	England	22	11	10	0	1	0	114	43.18
7	Bangladesh	12	4	8	0	0	0	45	31.25
8	Pakistan	11	4	7	0	0	0	40	30.30
9	West Indies	11	2	7	0	2	0	32	24.24

On the other hand, if Australia go on to win in Sydney, and clinch the Border-Gavaskar Trophy by 3-1 margin, they would go up to 63.73 percentage points. India, meanwhile, would remain third on 50.00 points, a sharp fall from being in a positive place after the series win against Bangladesh.

WORLD TEST CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS - IF INDIA WIN IN SYDNEY

No.	Teams	M	W	L	T	D	N/R	PT	PCT
1	South Africa	11	7	3	0	1	0	88	66.67
2	Australia	17	10	5	0	2	0	118	57.84
3	India	19	10	7	0	2	0	126	55.26
4	New Zealand	14	7	7	0	0	0	81	48.21
5	Sri Lanka	11	5	6	0	0	0	60	45.45
6	England	22	11	10	0	1	0	114	43.18
7	Bangladesh	12	4	8	0	0	0	45	31.25
8	Pakistan	11	4	7	0	0	0	40	30.30
9	West Indies	11	2	7	0	2	0	32	24.24

Ever since, India's chances of playing the WTC Final have taken one hit after another. It all began with the 3-0 series loss at home against New Zealand. In Australia, India got off to a positive start, winning the opener in Perth by a massive 295 runs.

But Australia clinched the second Test, at the Adelaide Oval, by 10-wickets, to keep themselves in the thick of things as far as WTC Points Table is concerned.

A draw at the Gabba in Brisbane didn't help either side. Instead, it made the MCG Test even more important than the context of the series and bragging rights that go with it.

Finally, India's hapless collapse in the final session allowed Australia to all but book their place in the title showdown with India on the verge of missing out.


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