labour market data

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns of a 40% recession risk in the US within a year, citing 'counterproductive policy choices' like tariffs and restrictive immigration. He suggests abandoning these policies, ending the Iran war, and letting the Fed maintain steady interest rates could avert a downturn, despite slowing job growth.

Gen Z professionals are increasingly opting for entrepreneurship over traditional 9-to-5 jobs, driven by a competitive job market and a desire for flexibility and independence. AI tools and lower living costs in emerging hubs are facilitating this shift, with many young founders finding self-employment more fulfilling than waiting for formal recruitment.

Engineering remains a powerful career option, but AI has changed its terms. Routine coding is getting automated, entry-level work is being compressed, and the old B.Tech-to-job promise looks less secure. The opportunity now belongs to students who combine fundamentals, AI fluency, domain understanding and judgement — not those who treat engineering as just another coding degree.

Asian markets showed mixed trading as AI stock momentum waned, oil prices stayed high, and inflation worries persisted. Japan's Nikkei saw a slight gain, while South Korea's Kospi recovered some losses. Concerns over stalled US-Iran talks and hotter US inflation data contributed to investor caution across the region.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is reconsidering a multibillion-dollar London office project due to the UK's political climate, warning of potential withdrawal if a future government proves "hostile to the banks." Despite this, Dimon expressed support for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, advocating for closer UK-Europe ties post-Brexit. Political instability surrounding Starmer's leadership is also impacting UK bond markets.

US employers added a robust 115,000 jobs in April, surpassing expectations despite global economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Healthcare and transportation sectors saw significant hiring, while manufacturing experienced job cuts. This resilient labor market suggests the Federal Reserve may hold off on interest rate cuts as inflation remains a concern.

Wall Street stocks surged on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq nearing record highs, buoyed by stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions and oil price concerns, positive corporate earnings from companies like Monster Beverage and Akamai Technologies also fueled the rally, indicating economic resilience.

India's labor market is shifting from agriculture to non-farm jobs, yet agriculture remains a significant employer. While overall labor force participation is steady, stark gender, caste, and geographic inequalities persist, impacting access to stable, better-paying work. Informality continues to dominate, with a substantial portion of casual workers earning below minimum wages.

While India's workforce participation has increased, a deeper look reveals significant disparities. More people are working, but many are in self-employment or informal roles with uncertain incomes. Gender and location heavily influence access to stable, well-paying jobs, highlighting a critical imbalance in job quality and opportunity.

Major Indian cities will soon get dedicated databases on labor markets and informal businesses. This move aims to boost evidence-based policymaking amidst rapid urbanization by filling crucial data gaps at the city level. The initiative will cover 47 million-plus cities, with Maharashtra leading in the number of such urban centers.

India’s macro exposure to the Middle East continues to be transmitted primarily through energy and critical input prices, reflecting structurally high dependence on imported crude and natural gas.