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Gold, silver price prediction today: Where are gold, silver prices headed after worst decline since 1980?

Gold, silver price prediction today: Where are gold, silver prices headed after worst decline since 1980?

TOI Business Desk / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Feb 03, 2026, 11:47 IST

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Gold, silver price prediction today: Where are gold, silver prices headed after worst decline since 1980?

Gold, silver price prediction today (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may continue to be under pressure in the near term and high volatility is expected in silver prices, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Here’s his outlook on gold prices:Performance:

Precious metals surged to fresh record highs on January 29 only to tumble hard the next day in the wake of the US President Trump unexpectedly nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh, the most hawkish among the leading contenders, advocates smaller balance sheet and is an inflation hawk, which stoked fear of a tighter monetary policy among traders.
The US Dollar, aided by the announcement and the supporting US data including hotter-than-expected PPI and encouraging Chicago PMI, strengthened, which further weighed on the precious metals and other commodities. In addition, in yet another negative factor, the CME Group raised margin requirements for precious metals and PGM group, which will come into effect after Monday's close.
Geopolitical concerns over Iran remain contained as the US weighs all its options that include diplomatic talks.
Stretched positioning, deleveraging, profit booking and tactical selling weighed heavily on precious metals.
It is to be noted that gold and silver had surged 30% and 70% YTD as on January 29.
Spot gold closed with a weekly loss of 1.87% at $4894 on January 30 as it tumbled nearly 10% that day; however, the total decline as measured from the record high of $5595 reached on January 29 to low of $4402 on February 2 amounts to a steep loss of $1193, or over 21%. Nonetheless, the shiny metal is still up around 12% YTD, which shows the extent of price rise in January.
Spot gold at the time of writing this article was trading at $4703, down 3.90% for the day.

Data roundup:

Data released on Monday showed that S&P US global manufacturing PMI at 52.40 topped the estimate of 52 in its January final reading. Similarly, ISM manufacturing PMI (January) coming at 52.60 Vs the estimate of 48.50 market the first month of expansion in manufacturing sector in 12 months and surged to the highest since August 2022.
China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 50.30 in January that topped the estimate of 50.
Eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 49.50 was above the median estimate of 49.40 but the manufacturing contracted for the third straight month.

Dollar Index and yields:

Moribund US Dollar Index, which fell to 95.55, a four-year low on January 27, closed at 96.99 on January 30, down 0.6% for the week. The Index, at the time of writing this article, was hovering around 97.54, up 0.by nearly .55% for the day.
2-year US yields, despite the nomination of Warsh, were down by 2 bps to 3.52% on Friday and finished the week nearly 2% lower, while ten-year yields were up by 1 bps to 4.235 and were steady in the week. At the time of writing, 2-year yields were up by 1% to 3.56%, while ten-year yields at 4.27% were up around 0.60% for the day.

Gold ETF and COMEX Inventory:

As of January 30, total known global gold ETF inventories stood at 100.54 MOz, up nearly 2% YTD.
Registered COMEX gold inventory at 19.04 MOz reached the highest level since December 15 but are down nearly 25% since the record peak of 24.25 MOz seen in April 2025.
Eligible COMEX gold stock at 16.71 MOz are down over 25% from the record level of 22.45 MOz reached in April and is at the lowest level since December 19.

US launches $12 billion minerals stockpiles:

The US President Trump, in his bid to counter China, will launch a strategic critical minerals stockpile with $12 billion in a venture termed as Project Vault in seed money. The project will focus on minerals such as gallium, cobalt, and rare earths.

Chinese media calls for strong Yuan:

China needs to strengthen the Yuan so that it can be widely used in international trade, investment and foreign exchange markets and reach the status of a global reserve currency, according to an article published on January 31 by Qiushi Journal, the official theoretical journal, and the news magazine.

CFTC data:

Hedge fund managers slashed their net bullish gold bets to 8-week low to 121,421 lots in the week ending January 27. The most bullish position since 2020 has been 285K lots noted in the week ending February 25.

Gold Price Outlook:

Barring flaring geopolitical tensions, gold is likely to be under pressure in the near term, though underlying fundamentals remain strong.
Upcoming US ISM services data and nonfarm payroll data are expected to cap the upside in the metal.
The yellow metal is expected to be highly volatile. It may decline to $4390/$4290. The upside is expected to be capped around $5000.
As India-US trade deal has been struck, appreciating INR will further pressurize the commodities in domestic markets and exchanges.

Silver Price outlook:

The white metal, also called the devil metal due to its inherent volatility, fell 41% from its record high of $121.65 on January 29 to $71.40 on February 2. At the time of writing, the metal was trading at $78.68, down nearly 7% for the day, but still up 10% YTD.
Unlike gold, silver ETFs, now at 823 MOz have seen a drawdown of nearly 5% YTD.
Silver, being a much smaller counter and lacking the benefit of central bank buying, is expected to be highly volatile.
Silver is expected to trade between $70 and $90. Interim resistance is at $85.
Traders can sell into rallies with a strict stoploss above $90. A breach of the crucial support at $70 will open the door to a test of $65 support.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

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The TOI Business Desk is a vigilant and dedicated team of journalists committed to delivering the latest and most relevant business news from around the world to readers of The Times of India. The primary focus of the TOI Business Desk is to keep a watchful eye on the global business landscape, covering a wide spectrum of industries, markets, economic trends, in-depth analysis, exclusive reports and breaking stories that impact businesses and economies. With a mission to provide valuable insights and updates, the desk ensures that TOI readers are well-informed about the ever-changing and dynamic world of commerce and can navigate the complexities of the business world.

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