Scientists say SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will strike the Moon at 5,400 miles per hour

A piece of space debris, a spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage, is speeding toward the Moon and will crash into it. Astronomers say this four-ton object will hit the Moon on August 5, 2026, around 06:44 UTC. It’s moving fast - about 2.43 kilometres per second or roughly 5,400 miles per hour - and the impact is expected to happen near the Einstein crater’s edge. Although Earth faces no danger from this event, it highlights concerns about space junk between Earth and the Moon. Interestingly, scientists see this unplanned crash as a chance to learn more about the resulting crater and how lunar soil moves upon impact. The Minor Planet Centre and orbital trackers have identified an object named 2025-010D. This is actually the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that was part of the Blue Ghost Mission 1, launched on January 15, 2025. Once it delivered its payloads towards the Moon, this 13-meter-long stage ended up in a highly elliptical Earth-Moon orbit. The Earth, Moon, and Sun's gravity played a part in changing its path over time. Eventually, these forces nudged it into a trajectory destined for a crash on the Moon. Based on Project Pluto's orbital data, this impact is inevitable. This adds yet another piece of human-made hardware to the lunar surface, unintentionally becoming a permanent fixture there. The crash is expected near the rim of the Einstein crater, an important impact basin on the Moon's western side. This spot catches scientific interest because it lies between the Moon’s near and far sides. Since sunlight will brighten this area during the event, scientists aim to use the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) for detailed images of the new crater made by the rocket. These observations help planetary experts gauge lunar soil depth and study ejecta patterns, offering insights typically obtained through costly, planned impact missions.The upcoming impact reveals a major issue in cislunar space traffic management about what to do with rocket stages left in deep space or around the Moon. Unlike satellites that orbit close to Earth and are made to fall back and burn up, equipment sent toward the Moon often ends up in unpredictable ‘graveyard’ orbits. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) suggests these stages should be disposed of in heliocentric orbits to prevent crashes. Yet, as more missions head to the Moon, incidents like this Falcon 9 crash highlight the urgent need for better end-of-life rules. These would help safeguard the lunar environment for future missions.