global trade war

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during talks with US President Donald Trump, highlighting concerns that the rising power's growth could lead to conflict with the established dominant power. This theory, popularized by Graham Allison, suggests structural tensions make war more likely, a concept now central to global geopolitical debates involving trade wars and technological competition.

Escalating Middle East conflict has choked the world's busiest oil passage, pushing crude prices past $100 per barrel with warnings of a surge to $167 or higher. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a severe energy and trade shock, potentially reducing global trade growth significantly and deepening economic uncertainty worldwide.

President Trump's visit to China is overshadowed by the Iran War, which has disrupted global energy supplies and impacted his approval ratings. While trade and Taiwan remain on the agenda, the protracted conflict in Iran presents a significant challenge, with the US struggling to achieve its war aims and facing a decline in superpower status.

Oil prices saw a slight uptick as traders awaited crucial talks between US President Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the ongoing Middle East conflict are keeping markets on edge. Despite US pressure, China's continued reliance on Iranian oil adds complexity to potential resolutions.

China's exports surged 14.1% in April, significantly exceeding expectations and bolstering the nation's economy despite global uncertainties. This strong performance precedes a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders, where trade tensions and other disputes are expected to be discussed. Analysts anticipate continued export-driven growth for China this year.

President Trump embarks on a crucial three-day visit to China, set to engage in high-stakes talks with President Xi Jinping. Discussions will span critical global issues including the Middle East conflict, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. Business leaders are accompanying Trump, signaling a focus on trade and potential new deals, as both nations navigate complex economic and security landscapes.

Mitsui OSK Lines anticipates further container rate increases due to a gap between rising bunker oil costs and freight rates, particularly in Asia. While a prolonged conflict could impact demand, the company remains bullish on India's growth, expanding its fleet for energy and vehicle transport.

India has reportedly sought an extension from the US to continue importing Russian oil, with the current waiver expiring May 16. The Congress party has sharply criticized PM Modi, accusing his government of "trading away India’s honour and dignity" and compromising energy security by "groveling before America" for permission.

Global oil prices surged as President Trump expressed impatience with Iran, fueling fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Brent and WTI crude saw significant weekly gains amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and supply concerns. Despite claims of increased vessel crossings, the Strait remains a critical choke point, with maritime incidents further heightening market anxieties about tight supply.

US President Trump revealed Chinese President Xi Jinping desires the Strait of Hormuz reopened to stabilize global energy markets. Both leaders reportedly agreed on the necessity of this crucial shipping route's resumption. Discussions also touched upon potential increased Chinese purchases of American oil and agricultural products, alongside ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

Presidents Xi and Trump are set for a crucial summit, aiming for stability despite deep-seated issues like tech rivalry and Taiwan. While a trade deal might emerge, it won't end the underlying friction. China's focus on domestic chip production and its stance on Taiwan, deemed the 'biggest risk,' will also be key discussion points. The US may also expect China's mediation in ending the Iranian mess.

Oil prices surged Friday as US-Iran tensions flared, reversing earlier declines. US strikes on Iranian targets prompted accusations of ceasefire violations, escalating fears over the vital Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical volatility overshadows concerns about suspicious trading activity linked to policy announcements, impacting global energy supplies and inflation.

While the US and Israel engaged in conflict with Iran, China quietly leveraged the situation to expand its influence. By positioning itself as a diplomatic alternative and stabilizing energy supplies, Beijing benefited from a weakened American strategic position and growing uncertainty about US reliability among allies.

GOI should let the economy adjust to new energy market realities, and raise pump prices. Lower domestic fuel consumption will also mean less dollar demand & help shore up the rupee