global trade war

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during talks with US President Donald Trump, highlighting concerns that the rising power's growth could lead to conflict with the established dominant power. This theory, popularized by Graham Allison, suggests structural tensions make war more likely, a concept now central to global geopolitical debates involving trade wars and technological competition.

Escalating Middle East conflict has choked the world's busiest oil passage, pushing crude prices past $100 per barrel with warnings of a surge to $167 or higher. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a severe energy and trade shock, potentially reducing global trade growth significantly and deepening economic uncertainty worldwide.

President Trump's visit to China is overshadowed by the Iran War, which has disrupted global energy supplies and impacted his approval ratings. While trade and Taiwan remain on the agenda, the protracted conflict in Iran presents a significant challenge, with the US struggling to achieve its war aims and facing a decline in superpower status.

Oil prices saw a slight uptick as traders awaited crucial talks between US President Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and the ongoing Middle East conflict are keeping markets on edge. Despite US pressure, China's continued reliance on Iranian oil adds complexity to potential resolutions.

China's exports surged 14.1% in April, significantly exceeding expectations and bolstering the nation's economy despite global uncertainties. This strong performance precedes a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders, where trade tensions and other disputes are expected to be discussed. Analysts anticipate continued export-driven growth for China this year.

President Trump embarks on a crucial three-day visit to China, set to engage in high-stakes talks with President Xi Jinping. Discussions will span critical global issues including the Middle East conflict, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. Business leaders are accompanying Trump, signaling a focus on trade and potential new deals, as both nations navigate complex economic and security landscapes.

Mitsui OSK Lines anticipates further container rate increases due to a gap between rising bunker oil costs and freight rates, particularly in Asia. While a prolonged conflict could impact demand, the company remains bullish on India's growth, expanding its fleet for energy and vehicle transport.

The govt should decontrol the price of all fertilisers and instead give all farmers a flat grant of Rs 5,000, paid into their bank accounts

India has reportedly sought an extension from the US to continue importing Russian oil, with the current waiver expiring May 16. The Congress party has sharply criticized PM Modi, accusing his government of "trading away India’s honour and dignity" and compromising energy security by "groveling before America" for permission.

Global oil prices surged as President Trump expressed impatience with Iran, fueling fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Brent and WTI crude saw significant weekly gains amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and supply concerns. Despite claims of increased vessel crossings, the Strait remains a critical choke point, with maritime incidents further heightening market anxieties about tight supply.

US President Trump revealed Chinese President Xi Jinping desires the Strait of Hormuz reopened to stabilize global energy markets. Both leaders reportedly agreed on the necessity of this crucial shipping route's resumption. Discussions also touched upon potential increased Chinese purchases of American oil and agricultural products, alongside ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

Presidents Xi and Trump are set for a crucial summit, aiming for stability despite deep-seated issues like tech rivalry and Taiwan. While a trade deal might emerge, it won't end the underlying friction. China's focus on domestic chip production and its stance on Taiwan, deemed the 'biggest risk,' will also be key discussion points. The US may also expect China's mediation in ending the Iranian mess.

Oil prices surged Friday as US-Iran tensions flared, reversing earlier declines. US strikes on Iranian targets prompted accusations of ceasefire violations, escalating fears over the vital Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical volatility overshadows concerns about suspicious trading activity linked to policy announcements, impacting global energy supplies and inflation.

While the US and Israel engaged in conflict with Iran, China quietly leveraged the situation to expand its influence. By positioning itself as a diplomatic alternative and stabilizing energy supplies, Beijing benefited from a weakened American strategic position and growing uncertainty about US reliability among allies.

GOI should let the economy adjust to new energy market realities, and raise pump prices. Lower domestic fuel consumption will also mean less dollar demand & help shore up the rupee

Gold and silver prices are expected to trade within a narrow band this week, with investors closely watching US-Iran peace talks and key global economic data. Analysts noted that while gold's momentum appears steady, silver shows positive movement. Geopolitical tensions and central bank buying are also influencing precious metal markets.

Russian President Putin is set for a significant two-day visit to China, commencing May 19, to deepen strategic ties with President Xi Jinping. This follows closely on the heels of Donald Trump's high-profile trip to Beijing, which focused on Taiwan, trade, and Iran. The leaders will discuss strengthening their partnership and address key global issues, aiming to sign a joint declaration.

Iran's chief negotiator insists Washington must accept Tehran's peace plan, warning of continued failure otherwise. President Trump, however, deemed Iran's response 'unacceptable,' escalating tensions. The ongoing conflict has triggered an energy shock, spiking oil prices and threatening global supply chains. Fighting also persists in Lebanon, with Hezbollah vowing to make the battlefield 'hell' for Israel.

US President Donald Trump branded Iran's terms for ending the Middle East war "totally unacceptable", raising the possibility of fresh conflict and sending oil prices sharply higher in early Asia trade on Monday. The impasse unnerved global energy markets, with international benchmark Brent crude prices rising 4.65 percent to $99.95 a barrel during Monday morning trade in Asia.

One of the key triggers behind the market decline was renewed uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” after Tehran rejected Washington’s latest proposal aimed at ending the conflict. Trump described Iran’s demands as “garbage.”

President Trump declared his China visit a historic "G-2" success, highlighting major trade deals including Boeing aircraft sales and agricultural commitments. He also suggested China would refrain from aggressive action on Taiwan during his presidency, while Xi Jinping privately warned of confrontation over the island. Trump indicated China's willingness to help broker an end to the Iran conflict.

Jewellery stocks saw a sharp decline on Monday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to reduce gold purchases. This call aims to preserve foreign exchange reserves. Major jewellery companies experienced significant drops in their share prices. Investors reacted quickly to the potential demand impact. Indian equities opened lower amid global concerns.